Development is inherently risky. Whether delivering aid in conflict zones or driving policy reforms in fragile democracies, the work we do is messy, uncertain, and subject to forces beyond our control. In recent years, the natural desire to control these risks has driven increasingly robust techniques for understanding and managing them – unfortunately, shifting focus towards what could go wrong and away from what could go right in the process. It’s understandable—funders and implementers are held accountable to taxpayers and shareholders, and they rightly want to mitigate harm.

But as we wrap ourselves in layers of risk frameworks and compliance procedures, are we also suffocating the very impact we seek to deliver?

At its best, risk management ensures we don’t create harm and that we protect our staff, partners, and participants. But an obsession with minimising risk comes at the expense of opportunity. Too many development programs are being managed to avoid failures, not to expand the scope of positive change they can create. As a result, bold, transformative interventions can be sidelined, replaced by safer, incremental, predictable approaches that keep us within the comfort zone of what we know we can control.

The problem is that real impact frequently lies beyond our comfort zone. And ‘impact’ – tangible, measurable, long-term results – is what funders are buying on behalf of those same taxpayers and shareholders. Achieving results like these often requires taking a leap of faith, and we can do this cognisant of the risks but optimistic about the potential for real change.

We need to ask ourselves: What are we sacrificing by focusing so heavily on what can go wrong? We’ve become adept at drafting risk registers that catalogue every potential pitfall, but where are the opportunity registers?Where are the strategies for identifying and seizing the moments that could spark real, system-wide change? Development isn’t just about containing risk—it’s about navigating it with courage and conviction toward something greater.

This requires a shift in mindset.

We need to stop thinking of risk and opportunity as opposites and start seeing them as two sides of the same coin. Taking smart risks is essential if we want to break new ground and go beyond status-quo solutions. Without experimentation—without the possibility of failure—how do we expect to solve the complex challenges of today, from extreme weather adaptation to economic inclusion?

We often admire the pioneers, entrepreneurs and grassroots movements that have driven significant change, but we forget that they succeeded precisely because they embraced risk. In the traditional development sector, by contrast, the pressure to deliver predictable outcomes makes it harder to experiment with new ideas.

A perfect example is M-PESA, a transformative SMS-based system that allows users to deposit, send and withdraw funds using their mobile phone. M-PESA came to be after Nick Hughes, a Vodacom employee, applied for funding from the UK Government to use mobile phones to deliver financial services to Kenyans, and the UK and Vodafone ultimately delivered matching investments of £1 million.

This was risky! And the outcomes were not guaranteed. But eight months after M-PESA's launch, a million Kenyans had already signed up. In 2017, there were 20 million users, and in 2023, a staggering 59% of Kenya’s GDP flowed through the platform.

I don’t know if an idea like this would be funded today. But we need more like it.

This is why opportunity management is so critical. It means building systems that not only mitigate risks but also create space for experimentation, iteration, and learning. It asks, “what might be possible?” instead of, “what could go wrong?”

Development initiatives must have the freedom to fail responsibly and learn from setbacks. Impact is rarely linear, and the most successful development interventions are often born from bold steps into the unknown. This requires bravery from everyone—funders, implementers, and local partners. It means sharing accountability for both the wins and the inevitable losses along the way.

I believe the future of development can be in targeted public funding of truly out-of-the-box solutions, which can either fail quickly, or, like M-PESA, be taken to scale by the private sector.

Development cannot afford to become so safe that it becomes stagnant. We need to find the balance between minimising harm and maximising potential. Opportunity management offers a path forward, one that challenges us to think beyond risk and embrace the uncertainty that comes with meaningful change. Let’s have the courage to ask not just what might go wrong, but what extraordinary things might happen if we dare to try.

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