There is an old truism in international affairs: humanitarian need follows conflict, and conflict follows humanitarian need. It’s a pattern we’ve seen time and again—when war breaks out, it can bring displacement, famine, and economic collapse. And when humanitarian crises persist, they can create the conditions for further instability and conflict.

This cycle is evident in many regions today, from Sudan to Ukraine, from the Sahel to the Middle East. The international community, led by governments such as the U.S. and the U.K., has long played a critical role in responding to these challenges, helping to stabilize fragile regions and support communities in crisis. As demands on humanitarian and development assistance grow, we have an opportunity to reassess how best to respond—ensuring that interventions are strategic, sustainable, and effective in breaking this cycle for good.

Humanitarian Need Follows Conflict

Conflict devastates lives. It destroys homes, food supplies, and access to clean water. It forces people to flee their communities, often across borders, putting pressure on neighbouring countries and straining resources. Today, over 114 million people worldwide are forcibly displaced—the highest number in recorded history.

In Sudan, the ongoing conflict has displaced over eight million people, while famine-like conditions are emerging due to supply chain breakdowns. In Ukraine, war has left large parts of the country struggling with electricity shortages, healthcare disruptions, and rising economic hardship. In Gaza, humanitarian organizations report food and medical supply shortages, while in Haiti, escalating violence makes humanitarian response increasingly difficult.

The global humanitarian system is being stretched like never before, making it more critical to ensure that funding and support are directed in ways that maximize impact.

Conflict Follows Humanitarian Need

The second part of the cycle is just as important: when humanitarian crises remain unresolved, they can contribute to further instability. Food insecurity, economic desperation, and governance breakdowns create environments where conflict can take hold.

In the Sahel, prolonged drought, poverty, and underdevelopment have made communities vulnerable to extremist recruitment and violence. In Afghanistan, economic collapse and humanitarian needs are growing, making it harder to prevent further instability. Even beyond active warzones, neglected crises can lead to mass displacement, health emergencies, and regional insecurity.

Addressing these challenges requires more than emergency aid; it demands a broader approach that strengthens resilience, stabilizes fragile economies, and supports governance structures that prevent conflict from reigniting.

The Opportunity to Adapt and Lead

As governments face competing priorities, they also have an opportunity to shape the future of humanitarian and development assistance. Governments, including the U.S., the U.K., and European partners, have a long history of adapting their approaches to meet emerging challenges. The question now is how to ensure that assistance remains effective in a rapidly changing world.

There are a few areas where new strategies and support could make a significant impact.

1. Maximizing the impact of existing resources

With growing demands on humanitarian and development funding, governments must ensure that every dollar delivers maximum impact. Funding increases are always welcome, but it’s more important to make smarter, more strategic investments that drive long-term resilience and reduce future reliance on aid.

One approach is innovative financing, including blended finance models that combine public and private capital to support sustainable development. Development finance institutions (DFIs) and impact investing can help scale locally led businesses, infrastructure projects, and job creation, reducing dependency on traditional aid.

Strengthening local capacity is another critical step. Supporting in-country organizations, businesses, and governments ensures that aid is delivered efficiently and in ways that align with local priorities. Programs that build resilience—such as agricultural investments that prevent food crises or education initiatives that create economic opportunities—can reduce the long-term need for emergency assistance.

Technology and data also play a crucial role. Advanced analytics, satellite imagery, and AI-driven early warning systems can help governments anticipate crises before they escalate, allowing for more proactive interventions. Digital payment systems and mobile banking solutions can ensure faster and more direct financial assistance to those in need.

By focusing on efficiency, innovation, and local leadership, governments can ensure that their resources are not only responding to immediate crises but also building pathways to long-term stability and self-reliance. This approach strengthens the overall impact of humanitarian and development efforts, making aid more sustainable and cost-effective over time.

2. Strengthening resilience in fragile states

Fragile states face recurring cycles of crisis due to conflict, economic instability, and weak governance. While humanitarian aid is essential in emergencies, building long-term resilience ensures that communities can withstand future shocks and reduce dependency on external assistance.

We can do this first and foremost by investing in economic stability. Supporting small businesses, local entrepreneurs, and sustainable agriculture can create jobs and strengthen economies, reducing the conditions that fuel instability. Development finance, microloans, and skills training programs help individuals and communities build livelihoods that last beyond immediate aid.

Strengthening governance and institutions is equally important. Well-functioning legal systems, transparent public services, and accountable leadership create stability and trust. Programs that support anti-corruption efforts, improve tax collection, and enhance public service delivery can help fragile states transition toward self-sufficiency.

Education and healthcare investments are also critical. Expanding access to education has been shown to drive economic growth and social stability. Similarly, strengthening healthcare systems helps prevent the spread of disease and reduces the burden on emergency response efforts.

Many fragile states are also highly vulnerable to climate-related shocks, such as droughts, floods, and food insecurity. Integrating climate adaptation strategies into development programs—such as improved water management and climate-smart agriculture—helps communities better withstand environmental challenges.

Focusing on resilience helps fragile states move from crisis response to long-term stability, creating a foundation for sustained peace and economic growth.

3. Enhancing coordination and burden-sharing

No single country can—or should—shoulder the responsibility for addressing global humanitarian and development challenges alone. Greater coordination among governments, regional actors, and multilateral institutions can ensure that assistance is more effective and sustainable.

Different governments have deep expertise in specific regions based on historical ties, geographic proximity, and long-term engagement. France’s experience in the Sahel, the U.S.’s leadership in Latin America, the U.K.’s development partnerships in South Asia and Africa, and the EU’s role in Ukraine and the Balkans are just a few examples. Similarly, Gulf states like the UAE and Qatar are increasingly influential in East Africa and the Middle East. Aligning efforts with these regional strengths can prevent duplication and maximize impact.

Multilateral organizations like the UN, World Bank, and regional bodies such as the African Union (AU) and ASEAN also play a critical role in coordinating responses and ensuring that interventions align with local priorities. Pooling resources, supporting locally led solutions, and integrating security and development efforts can create more sustainable outcomes.

We also have an opportunity to engage new and emerging funders—including India, Brazil, and Turkey—who are expanding their role in global development. By leveraging regional expertise, strengthening multilateral cooperation, and expanding partnerships, governments can ensure their assistance not only responds to immediate crises but also contributes to long-term stability and resilience.

A Collaborative Path Forward

The international development and humanitarian system has evolved significantly over the years, with investing governments consistently adapting their approaches to meet new realities. By working together—through smarter financing, stronger partnerships, and targeted investments in stability—we can go beyond crisis response and instead break the cycle of conflict and humanitarian need altogether.

The stakes are high, but so is the potential for impact. With the right approaches, the international community can continue to be a force for stability, security, and economic opportunity worldwide.

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